Individual Performance in Optimal Bayesian Inference

Applications of Bayesian inference to human decisionmaking have met with mixed success, but new theoretical developments and experimental paradigms are helping to form a clearer picture of the role that inference plays in human cognition. We combine the latest ideas to provide evidence that at a computational level, the mind’s ability to make predictions may be grounded in Bayesian theory. Our results support the idea that the mind’s capacity for statistical reasoning is more sophisticated than previously hypothesized.